Blessed by the Potato

I don’t know if it’s just going viral because sometimes things do that, or if there’s a coordinated push from the various conservative social media accounts to attack Canada’s zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, or if I’ve accidentally trained The Algorithm into thinking I crave the absolute dumbest opinions on cars, but for whatever reason I am seeing a tonne of misinformation on social media about the ZEV mandate.

For those who don’t know, as one step toward meeting our climate goals Canada has set a sales target for a portion of new cars to be “zero emission”, starting next year (2026) with a 20% target, increasing each year until by 2035 gas-only vehicles are phased out completely and the market is 100% ZEV.

You Won’t be Forced to Drive an EV

This does not mean that you will have to buy an all-electric car: ZEVs include plug-in hybrids. So all the vitriolic takes about having to charge on long drives or running out of juice if stuck in traffic in the winter are nonsense misinformation based on misreading what the government means by ZEVs in the mandate. Most cars sold will continue to have a gas engine for extra range, heat in the winter, road trips, etc., they’ll just also have a battery to handle most local driving needs.

There are a bunch of PHEVs on the market today: a Prius Prime or Hyundai Ioniq if you want a mid-sized car; an Escape PHEV (like mine — as much as I criticize aspects of it, it’s a great driving solution) or Rav4 Prime if you want a regular SUV; a Pacifica if you want a van; an Outlander or Sorento if you want a giant SUV. And many more options that will be coming in time for 2035.

Almost 14% of cars sold in 2024 were ZEVs. Now, most of those were in Quebec where there are significant provincial incentives, but if all it takes is $7k to move the needle that much, then the national quota/credit system should help make it happen (and if not, driving a gas guzzler may become a Veblen good). To my surprise, despite a PHEV being the better solution, most of the ZEVs sold last year were actually full battery-electric vehicles (BEVS), about three-quarters. But IMNSHO, that was in part due to availability: the Rav4 Prime is still backordered to hell, the Escape PHEV was just starting to become available in 2024 and I believe the Hyundai options were largely in the same boat, the Prius Prime was still a brand-new model, and many other options were compliance frankenvehicles. As we move toward 2035 and the ZEV mandate starts to force sales towards ZEVs, I think we’ll see PHEVs take the lead over BEVs.

Charging Infrastructure

The next big misinformation point is for posters to wring their hands up and say there’s no way we’ll have the charging infrastructure for all those electric-powered cars in that time… without ever providing data or a calculation to back that fear-mongering up (“Can you imagine?”). Or assuming an unrealistically worse-than-worst-case scenario, like that all cars are full EVs and have completely drained their batteries at the same time and all want to do fast charging at once.

So let’s do a quick back-of-the-envelope exercise. ZEVs need very roughly 10 kWh/day — the PHEVs largely have roughly that much battery capacity, and they charge from a regular household outlet at about 1 kW overnight at off-peak times. The BEVs will have more capacity (call it 70 kWh for their total battery capacity), but the average demand will come in close to that (because most days they don’t drive their full range). They’ll have higher power chargers (level 2), but if we can handwave away that they won’t all be on at the same time, the population-level effect comes out to the same sort of order-of-magnitude of a kW or so for mostly off-peak times.

Ontario has just over 8 million passenger vehicles. Though there would be 10 years before the ZEV mandate kicks in, and more time for all those new cars to work their way into the system (the gas-only cars sold today would still be around then so we’d have two or three decades to fully add any grid or power generation needs), let’s assume the worst-case that a wizard has cursed us to all drive ZEVs tomorrow. 8 million cars times a kW each is 8 GW of power demand, mostly off-peak.

Ontario, on a typical day, uses about 19 GW on-peak, and 13 GW off-peak (NB: 10-year-old data), so we have something like 6 GW — almost all! — of that grid capacity sitting in our back pocket right now. Yes, it would be a problem if all those cars tried to charge on-peak on a hot summer day with peak A/C demand, but that’s not generally how people charge their PHEVs or even their EVs — they plug in after they get home, often with the car having a timer to wait until off-peak rates to start charging. And that’s our magic-wand scenario — the ZEVs will phase in more slowly, so there will be lots of time for the grid (and generation) capacity to grow.

Cost for Canadians

The last point of misinformation is that this ZEV mandate is going to make cars more expensive for Canadians, and that one does has a big grain of truth to it, but is more subtle and complicated than just comparing the sticker price of an electric car to comparable gas-only one. First off, a system of quotas and credits will generally mean the people driving gas-only cars subsidize the costs of those driving ZEVs. Indeed, in other markets Tesla sells its BEV credits to other manufacturers, so those BEVs are subsidized so much that in many quarters Tesla has more regulatory credit income than it does net income (i.e., the cars are otherwise sold at a loss). So yes, it will make gas-only cars more expensive, but the ZEVs should be cheaper as a result, benefiting the early adopters (with the trade-off that ZEVs are more expensive in the first place).

But the up-front cost is only part of what Canadians pay to drive their cars. Driving on electricity is cheaper than driving on gas for almost all ZEVs out there in almost all jurisdictions. Indeed, part of why I opted for the more expensive Ford Escape PHEV over a comparable hybrid or dino gas-only model is that I expect to save money over its lifetime. While social media may complain that the mandate is increasing prices on Canadians, and that’s largely true for up-front costs, there’s a good chance it will actually help them save money, by nudging them (or in later years, shoving them) into buying a car with a lower total cost of ownership — paternal and all that, but helpful for people that only consider the up-front cost of a car.

The Actual Good Point They Miss

However, that lower total cost of ownership will only apply for those people who are able to plug in at home, and that is not going to be everyone, even in a decade. Which is the one really strong criticism of the mandate: 100% is not necessarily the right number for the final step of the mandate. However, I haven’t seen any of the people who are angry at the mandate discuss the flaws in its specifics and how to make it better, they seem to be angry about the very notion of regulating the free market.

Some people won’t be able to charge (and some will steadfastly refuse to for various reasons and irrational personal preferences even when they can), so in those cases they will be paying more for capabilities they aren’t able to use — only having PHEVs/BEVs available with higher up-front costs really will increase their cost of ownership, as they pay for a battery they won’t use and just go to the gas station like they do today.

Now, an argument can be made that despite that, the target has to be 100%: if we make it say 75% to account for the ~25% who can’t realistically operate on electricity, there is no way the right 25% will end up buying the gas cars: lots of people with the ability to charge will just buy gas cars because they want to as long as they’re available (indeed, buying a gas-only car may become a status symbol; gas guzzlers already are). Manufacturers, when buying credits are an option, may just opt to buy the credits and pass along the higher costs rather than innovate. A partial mandate may keep the momentum and status quo going far longer than if we went for the aggressive, full ZEV mandate, and having some people pay for charging capabilities they will rarely use may just be the cost to get us to a more decarbonized future, some proponents may argue.

So 20% ZEV sales next year is a pretty decent jump from 14%, but totally doable. Some small pricing tweaks on both sides will help manufacturers hit their sales mixes, combined with greater volume availability on the models that are popular anyway. But those targets will get increasingly harder to hit without better adoption by Canadians, and better model offerings (and pricing) from manufacturers. And I’m not convinced 100% is the right stopping point, but also don’t know how to better set the right level, and regardless that’s a more nuanced conversation than “ZEVs bad, government forcing you to do bad things!”

Aside: Confused at Car Manufacturers

I’ve done a few deep dives into hybrids and EVs over the years, but my expertise is not in cars or production. However, I know the hybrid synergy drive used by Toyota and Ford (with some shared patents) has proven itself to be reliable, efficient, and smooth. To the best of my understanding of how patents work, that system is off-patent now (and has been for a little while). So why the hell are so many manufacturers trying to re-invent the wheel (or HSD) rather than just throwing that wonderful, proven system into ~all their models? Why does Hyundai use a regular automatic transmission with an electric motor bolted to it (and get sub-par city mileage)? Why has Honda gone through like three different versions of their hybrid transmission? Why does Volvo sin against nature¹ with its PHEV monstrosities? Why is it seemingly so hard to just take the thing that works, and then use it more? (For that matter, it took Toyota long enough to streamline even a tiny portion of its models to hybrid-only, and some models still don’t have a hybrid version at all).

1. I know explaining the joke doesn’t make it funnier but I feel like I should explain: a common criticism of hybrids is that they’re more complex than gas-only cars so they must be inherently less reliable. Which the data shows us is wrong (the various Prius generations own the reliability rankings, and the problem spots on the 3rd gen were the gas engine, not the hybrid system). But more to the point, it’s not actually true for Toyota/Ford HSD hybrids: you add a pair of electric motors, an inverter, and a big battery, but those motors and the power split device then replace the starter, alternator, transmission, and clutch (and I believe something else that is escaping my memory as I write this). Having that electrical generation capacity then lets you take out all the belts, so the A/C and other things can now be replaced with more reliable electric versions (and the power split and electric motors are way more reliable than a conventional automatic transmission). It’s actually fewer moving parts overall, with more reliable versions — it just sounds more complex. Volvo (and a few other manufacturers) are not using that system, they are in fact just bolting a motor and battery on to the car, and keeping all the old parts: conventional engine (indeed a turbo, not even an Atkinson-cycle which is where all the magic of a hybrid comes from and a huge part of why their fuel economy figures suck once the EV range runs out), conventional transmission, starter, etc. is all still there, plus a motor to run the other set of wheels and a battery and an inverter. All those tired criticisms of hybrids we’ve spent decades dispelling they’ve gone ahead and made manifest.

My laptop is 6 years old now, and I got it at just the right time: USB-C was new, so it has USB-C ports, and can charge from a universal USB-C power supply, but also has regular USB-3 ports and headphone jack. My dad got a laptop from the same line but a few years newer, and it only has USB-C, which meant dongles. Dongles everywhere. The new thing is not always ready for prime-time.

A big driver of the price protection troubles I had in getting my new Escape PHEV was that the build delays pushed it to a new model year. And Ford did a mid-cycle refresh of the Escape for 2023, so the 2022 model I test drove and ordered isn’t quite what I received. And the new things are not necessarily ready for prime time.

The 2023 has a larger centre touchscreen, at the expense of almost all the physical buttons. And it feels like that USB-C only laptop with its attendant cloud of dongles — it’s supposed to be new and futuristic but just feels like a janky human factors nightmare, and makes me wish I had the slightly older version.

One of the big set of physical buttons to get removed was for the climate control. Now all of that: fans, A/C, temperature, defrost, seat heaters, etc. is controlled from the central touch screen. And one question I never saw any of the reviews of the new model answer was does the touchscreen work with gloves? I can say that it does not. They did put in one physical button for “max defrost” which may help if you have gloves (or if cold fingers also don’t operate the touchscreen) to get some heat flowing. And with the heated steering wheel I may never wear gloves to drive again… but still, I’d much rather have physical buttons that work in all kinds of conditions by touch alone for some of these basic functions. On the bright side, the climate control buttons are locked to the bottom of the touchscreen so you can always find them. They also set the touch control up so that once you touch a control you can slide up or down anywhere (so if your finger wanders on a diagonal after you touch temperature or fan speed, you can just go vaguely up or vaguely down and it will still register as up or down, you don’t have to go perfectly up). It’s also possible to do some things through voice control, though so far I’ve only successfully changed the temperature set point but haven’t figured out how to change the fan speed (it may not be an option — the manual only has changing the temperature in its list of example voice commands).

The touchscreen also requires a surprising number of steps to get to frequently accessed functions. If I’m picking a drive mode (EV now, for instance, which you have to pick every time you start the car if you want something other than EV-auto), to then turn the radio on I have to go home, then sources, then pick radio/Sirius/android auto. And go back I think all that way again if I’m in Android Auto and want to go back to the radio. Though there is a shortcut icon for Android Auto across all screens so going in that direction is fast (just not back to the radio or to drive mode).

Android Auto works like a dream, though. I have a set of wireless earbuds (which I had to get because new phones don’t have headphone jacks), and it’s so frustrating to use them. They connect by bluetooth automatically when they come out the case, which is great… but for some reason you can play music with them but the podcast app can’t find them until Bluetooth has been cycled on and off a few times. Makes no damned sense. Anyway, so far this is not like that — as soon as I’m in the car, my phone connects. It will automatically start playing the music from my phone, over-riding the radio (which I don’t always want, but it’s fast at doing it). I successfully got it to read me a text message and let me compose one by voice, which I’ve had a heck of a time doing with the phone itself in my old car (using the phone’s built-in speaker, as it only used the car’s bluetooth for calls before).

Of course the big reason to get it was to have an EV. And so far, that part works, at least on the car’s side. Even in EV auto I’ve been able to drive around in pleasant June temperatures without the engine ever coming on. However, I’ve tried charging three times now, and each time the cable has given ground fault warnings and shut off several times, and I don’t know if that’s a problem with the outlet by my driveway or the cable itself. After ~5 repeats of unplugging and starting over it worked each time to start charging, so who knows. Today, I came out to the cord again flashing error codes (this time about over-heating), but the battery had charged to 97% overnight anyway so maybe that’s a non-issue. We managed to go ~40 km in near-perfect conditions for EV range, and still had ~23% battery left when getting back home.

On EV mode, it has enough power to do a normal highway on-ramp and merge ~90-100 km/h. If it needs more it can kick on the gas engine, but so far I haven’t had enough open lane in Toronto traffic to see it do that. For comparison, the Gen3 Prius was not exactly a sports car, but had just enough power to get around (officially ~10.5 s to 100 km/h). So on those same on-ramps with near-full EV mode, I’d be around the top of the Prius power meter (which topped out below what the car could actually do, maybe ~75-80% of full power, but you could keep pushing it beyond what the power meter showed), which is where most of my driving in the Prius ended up. Every now and then we’d have to push the pedal to the medal for a short on-ramp with fast traffic and we’d chant “Go Prius Go!” so if we got into that kind of situation, the Escape’s gas engine would kick in to give us the extra power and then some (~9.2 s for the 0-100 km/h test).

The 3rd Gen Prius had a lot of things going for it that were weird and quirky, but I wish had been taken up by other carmakers and other Toyota models. The high-centre instrument cluster looks super weird when you first get in, largely because no other cars work that way. There is nothing hidden behind the steering wheel in the Prius. But that placement means you don’t have to move your eyes off the road as much to check your speed, etc. It also means the focal distance doesn’t change as much, which as my eyes get older I was starting to appreciate. And the Prius made the effective focal distance even longer by having the actual display under the dash and then reflected off a mirror to the driver’s eyes.

With the Escape, I opted for the fancy technology package to get their heads-up display. It reminds me of Chuck Yeager, a little pane of glass that pops up, and the speed and navigation info is reflected off of it so it appears just on the edge of the hood. That’s better than having to look down through the steering wheel, but is a lot of moving parts and can be washed out in certain light conditions. Plus the speed is not displayed as large as I’d personally prefer, even on the largest setting. I think it would have been cheaper and just as functional if they had just adopted the Prius’ quirky dash (though even the Prius abandoned that concept with the 5th gen redesign that just came out). I’m also not sure why they have all the moving parts (the little pane of glass goes back into the dashboard and is covered when the car is off) when they could just reflect directly off the windshield (which Toyota does in the Rav4 and 4th Gen Prius).

The Prius also had some high-design element to the plain-looking plastic dash that Toyota never really advertised, and I wish I had thought to take a picture of before I sold it. The dash looked like just a big curved piece of plastic, as dull as an efficient driving appliance can be. But it had tiny finger-print like patterns on the surface, which I credit for its incredible anti-reflection/glare properties (but it may have been the material or the larger curve or something else). If you wore polarized sunglasses, the Prius dash was completely black, it was like magic. Even in bright sun, while there was some reflection or glare on the windshield, it was way less than any other car I’ve ever driven. The Escape’s dash is just average in terms of glare.

One good thing about the 2023 redesign is the colour choices for the seats and dash elements. The 2022 had only one choice if you got the package with the HUD, a black seat with two big tan patches on the seat and backrest, with a birch-like woodgrain strip across the dash. The new “space grey” seats look much better, and while there’s still a strip with woodgrain texture, it’s also “space grey” and blends into the whole look much better.

Anyway, some pros, some cons, but as much as I’m annoyed by having to pay more than expected for the Escape, I’m happy with the big parts in terms of how it drives and how the EV mode works (though I’ve got to try someone else’s outlets to see what’s going on with those error messages).

[Let’s just skip the part where I’ve been AWOL for practically a whole year, I honestly can’t believe I missed that much time and I’ll catch you up on the continued suckitude later]

On the car question, I last left you with this post on the decision. I did indeed wait until the spring, and ordered a Ford Escape PHEV in April of 2022.

It took way longer than the 6-8 months we were told to expect, and in October of 2022 Ford made the call that they wouldn’t get some of the 2022 orders built before the roll-over to the 2023 model year. So my dealer rolled my order over — I had to go in and confirm the colour choices. I only had one question “I’m still price protected, right? I’m in no hurry, so you guys could build it as a 2024 for all I care as long as I still get the 2022 price.” “Yes, it’s price protected” my salesperson said — but I unfortunately didn’t get that in writing.

Finally after 13 months my Escape PHEV arrived at the dealer.

That was a month ago. It sat there for a week while we waited for the one guy who can appraise a trade-in to be on-site, and then I brought my Prius in for him to look at. They offered 1/3 of what it’s worth (and I’m not talking private market sale — I had an two offers from dealers that were ~3X what Ford offered). So whatever, I won’t do a trade-in, just a straight-up purchase of the car I ordered, and sell the Prius separately. Then they needed some more time to figure out what the price actually was, because there was supposed to be price protection on my order, and Ford had gone through several cycles of price hikes in the prior 13 months.

Finally they get back to me with a number… and it’s ~$3600 +tax more than we agreed to when I ordered the car in April of 2022. I simply said “isn’t this supposed be price protected? Here’s a copy of the yellow order sheet I signed, showing the price comes to [price].” They said oh yeah, there is supposed to be price protection, that’s long been Ford’s policy, we’ll call them and get back to you.

Weeks have gone by since. For various reasons, Ford didn’t get back to them, or the manager was out of the office, or they can’t find the adjustment in the system. It’s now a full month since my Escape arrived from the factory and I still don’t have it — they still think I have to pay $3600 (+tax!) more because that’s what the system shows, which is price protection back to the time the order rolled over to a 2023 model, but not back to when I ordered it.

I’ve called Ford’s customer support line, but they said they can’t help and anything to do with orders has to go through the dealer. I’ve tried Tweeting at them with no reply yet.

I’m sympathetic to the dealer here — Ford was the one who took more orders than they could make and/or fell behind on production, so it’s up to them to honour the price. And it seems from what little I can see on the outside that there is a system to do that automatically, but it’s not set up for orders that span model years. But I’m the customer, it shouldn’t be this hard/take this long/be up to me to try to publicly shame Ford into sorting this out (as one forum user put it, “Not your circus, not your clowns”) — the dealer and the manufacturer should be able to sort this out invisibly behind the scenes. Ford had my order in hand in April of 2022, and closed new orders not too long after. They had all summer and fall to get parts for the backlog of PHEVs and hybrids. It was probably only a few days worth of production that ended up rolling over like mine (AFAIK, all gas-only orders got built as 2022s), so they should have just extended the run until those orders were filled, rather than stopping production in November of 2022 to roll over to the 2023 model (which was plagued by start-up problems and didn’t really get moving until March of 2023).

But while it’s shitty customer service that led to this situation, this is where we are. So, dear readers (those of you who are left), it looks like I’m faced with a dilemma. I’m being asked to pay ~$3600 +tax more than I expected or agreed to (or about 8% more), after the adjustment. I’m angry about that. But walking away only helps the dealer: they can sell it for several thousand more (the adjustment that is there plus likely a mark-up because people who don’t want to wait for a plug-in will pay it).

And there aren’t really any other options, other than continuing to drive the 2010 Prius into the ground. I dislike Toyota’s redesign of the Prius, and the Rav4 Prime is sold out through to the end of its production run. Any alternative involves paying even more and likely waiting another few years just because of where the car market is now.

So on the one hand, walking away doesn’t seem to be a very viable option. Plus there’s the risk they’d keep my deposit — I should get my deposit back given how easily they’ll resell it and that I have a good reason for walking, but you never know.

On the other, part of why I was going to pay up for a new car is the joy of the experience, and that’s going to be tainted by these shenanigans now. Whenever someone asks me about my new Escape for the next few years, I won’t be gushing “oh yes, I do over 90% of my driving completely on electric!” or “check out the heads-up display!” or whatever, I’ll be going “eh, it does the job, but Ford screwed me out of four thousand bucks for the privilege of waiting longer through their production screw-ups so I can’t exactly recommend one.”

Anyway, after letting the blog lie fallow for so long I doubt anyone is going to read this before I just accept this situation and go close the deal on the car, but I welcome any comments below.

Update: I paid the extra and picked the Escape up.

Yesterday I set the stage with a general discussion on plug-in hybrids with a chance that you might find some part of it useful. Today we move on to the personal blog hand-wringing part where I try to decide what to do in my own life (which you can safely skip).

To get a new car, or not to get a new car? That is the question that I had managed not to ask myself for over a decade.

A few things came together to get me thinking about getting a new car. First off were discussions with my dad before he died — he was trying to push me toward getting a new car, trying to convince me I could afford it and deserved it. But that was before the pandemic. It was also a symptom of how his values were different from mine: he was just much more of a car person than me, after all he had 4 cars in his name when he passed.

And talking about moving to a PHEV for my next car with Blueberry got me to thinking why not make that transition sooner? Now, even?

On top of that, we have the weird market dynamics during the pandemic: used car prices are up a lot, so it might make sense to sell the old car now and buy a new one.

Obviously this is not a matter purely for economics — as a personal finance blogger I may have to forcibly repeat the conventional wisdom that buying used is usually the cheaper way to go. But I bought my Prius new, and will very likely buy my next car as a new car (and then keep it for 12+ years) even if it costs a bit more. I don’t want to be too loose with my budget, but this has been one area I’m willing to splurge a tiny bit every decade or two.

It’s kind of ridiculous to think about upgrading my car when the current one works great, and looks like it will have many more years of trouble-free operation to come. On the other hand, we’re a single-car family. ‘Til the wheels fall off’ is no longer our end point, we will be trading up at least a few years before that point because our one car has to be reliable.

So let’s be ridiculous for a bit and consider it.

Part of why used car prices are up so much is the chip shortage, which is causing delays for new cars. A Rav4 Prime has a 15-month waiting list at the moment, and a 6-month delay for an Escape PHEV. There are conflicting reports on how long the supply chain chaos will ripple through the market, but the consensus building in my head is that it could be a few years (several more quarters of chip shortage, and then a few more to work through the backlog). So maybe I don’t want to upgrade now, but if I want to 2 or 3 years from now, I might need to start shopping and maybe even getting on a waiting list now. As much as this mindset contributes to delays and shortages, I don’t think you want to go car shopping when you need a new car in this environment, you want to be out ahead of it. So maybe it makes sense to be thinking about this now even though the current car is in great shape?

What to get?

A PHEV is a no-brainer even for our minimal driving, if we’re comparing similar models.

The Prius is an astounding car, we cram all kinds of stuff into that hatch… but we’re not prepared to sacrifice on cargo space from there. We went to see a Prius Prime in person, and noped right out as soon as I put a box in there to see how the cargo space truly compares. So sadly, the Prius Prime is out (though as the kind folks at PriusChat pointed out, I could get a roof rack or small trailer for the few times a year we do need all the space the regular Prius offers).

And while a PHEV SUV makes sense compared to a gas or hybrid SUV, they don’t make financial sense compared to a regular hybrid Prius, at least not for our level of usage. So do we want to move up a size class just to be able to plug in? (I am leaning strongly that way because I do want a plug-in)

We went out and test drove a Ford Escape Hybrid (no PHEVs available to test, but close enough to evaluate most aspects of the vehicle). I do have a Toyota bias, but was pleased with how it drove and how the controls were laid out (though I wish the Prius’ high-centre display had taken off in more cars). We hated the standard SE-trim seats (mostly that the headrest was too far forward for comfort, and not adjustable), but the ones in the higher trims seemed fine. I haven’t driven a hybrid Rav4 in a while, but I am somewhat familiar with what it entails, and am quite sure that it would be a close match-up.

Either would be a perfectly fine choice for our next car: but we weren’t swept off our feet, and haven’t felt that irrational lust to upgrade, which otherwise might have short-circuited all of this analysis paralysis. They’re just good choices for the next step, but really no better than what we have now in terms of driving feel or comfort.

Based on what’s out there now, I’m putting the Ford Escape PHEV at the top of the list, though it’s essentially a tie with the Rav4 Prime. I have some brand loyalty to Toyota, but I don’t like the look of the new Rav4s (too truck-like and mean-looking, though I know that’s superficial of me), while I do like the more rounded look of the Escape. I also don’t love that the SE trim only comes in 3 boring colours — as Wayfare said, if we’re going to spend all that money for a new car, it should at least come in a fun colour that we love. The Rav4’s XSE trim is a big jump in price to be able to get a fun colour and a few other features, and while the tech package is very interesting (a heads-up display!) to me, it costs a tonne (perhaps because of the moonroof, which I would prefer to do without) — at that point it’s essentially in another class. The lower-trim SE Rav4 costs ~$2k more than the fully loaded Escape, and the XSE is $7.5k more. That’s quite the premium (though to be fair, with the Toyota name it will probably keep a chunk of that on resale value) for vehicles that I liked about equally.

But the big question is what’s coming out next? The 4th gen Prius is overdue for a makeover, though reports are that the 5th gen Prius won’t hit the market until 2023. And the plug-in version took an extra year or more for each of the Prius, Rav4, and Escapes, so while there’s a chance the 5th gen Prius Prime might find a no-compromise way to hide the plug-in batteries in the floor or under the seats and be perfect for us, it might not be available until 2024 or 2025 (when my current car will be 14-15 years old) — a close enough future to maybe wait with a very high chance the current car will be fine through to then, but just far enough to trigger the worries and analysis paralysis. And looking back at past news stories, Toyota seems to only release detailed info on the next generation less than a year before it’s on sale, so it’s not like we’ll have specs in hand to answer the question about the 5th gen Prius Prime and reassure us about the plan to wait any time soon.

Timing Questions

If we were going to get just another hybrid, it wouldn’t even be a question: I’d wait at least for the 5th gen Prius, and wouldn’t even be considering the SUVs. Also, the chip shortage doesn’t seem to be hitting Priuses too hard, with many in inventory at the local dealers (i.e., no wait at all right now).

But the prospect of moving up to a PHEV to stop burning gas for a big chunk of my driving is an attractive idea, and is making me consider an early upgrade. Plus my dad put that damned idea to get a new car in my head, so I was primed for that debate to start up.

The chip shortage has of course thrown another wrinkle into the mix. It’s about a 15-month wait for a R4P now, and a 5-6 month wait for an Escape PHEV. The chip shortage and supply chain disruptions look like they’ll continue to create waiting lists for at least another year, and I’d rather upgrade while I have the luxury of wallowing in analysis paralysis on my blog rather than when something big breaks on my car and I worry that I am getting close to its end of life. Plus prices are weird — there are no discounts to MSRP to be had, but it’s acting as a cap to prices on a new car, while used cars have increased in value. Paying $1.25k more on a new car from not being able to negotiate a discount while getting $2k more back on the trade-in (if we can accomplish that — it remains to be seen how much more valuable our specific car is) seems like a situation that’s worth taking advantage of.

So here we are at the end, with no clear conclusion for what I should personally do. Wayfare says we still love the Prius, it’s still in good shape, and we’re not feeling that primal need for a new SUV after the test drive, so the smart conclusion is to wait. And she’s right, but I’m not sure how long to wait — can I wait for the 5th gen Prius Prime to make the move? And what about those worries about incoming inflation?

I think I’m going to take at least 6 months to cool off and reconsider in the spring — maybe we’ll get lucky with an early preview of the 5th gen Prius by then that will make the next step clear one way or the other, or maybe Toyota will offer the R4P SE in teal (sorry, ‘Blue Magnetism’) and the rational discussion will end.

A small part of me that has skipped ahead to the last page thinks that I’m going to be picking up a Ford Escape PHEV next year, and then is immediately replaced by the part that says we’ll have that Prius for another decade until Blueberry goes off to university (and then she can drive it fully into the ground). It’s an almost perfect superposition of two opposite states — such is life in the analysis paralysis web.

So I guess I’ll see you in 6 months with another whiny, inconclusive blog post!

I was talking with Blueberry about global warming and transportation, as one does. We drive a Prius (and not much driving at that), but even then we still burn gas just to go get groceries or go to dance class. She looked up at me and asked the fatal question: “Can’t we do better? Is there a car that burns no gas, Daddy?” I had long been interested in hybrids and electrics, but hadn’t specifically shopped for a while, so I went and did that.

PHEVs in General

Electrify most of your driving. Save money, save the planet. That’s the goal right? So how do you best do that: with a plug-in hybrid [electric] vehicle (PHEV) or a fully electric battery [electric] vehicle (BEV)?

The answer was counter-intuitive for me: wouldn’t a PHEV be more complicated and expensive than a pure BEV, having two powertrains? Maybe more complicated, yes (though not much more than a hybrid, which are also counter-intuitively more reliable than their pure gas counterparts), but to cover most daily driving you only need a small bit of batteries, so perhaps not more expensive.

I came across a very persuasive argument that helped shift my perspective: you want to electrify your normal driving, and that takes an electric motor and a certain amount of batteries, 10-20 kWh or whatever. Then you want to not have range anxiety by having barely enough juice for your daily drive, so you have to add something to provide that cushion. One way to go is to add another 40+ kWh of batteries to provide a longer range. Or, you can add a gas engine and all its accoutrements for that extra range. And it turns out that with the price of batteries still so high, the gas engine is still considerably cheaper than adding more batteries (and has some added convenience in not having to learn about fast charging networks — you can keep using regular gas stations on long trips).

On a fleet level, the PHEV approach also makes sense if batteries are in limited supply and a production constraint (and for now and the foreseeable future, they are). A GWh worth of batteries can make so many BEVs, or ~4-6X as many PHEVs, and all those PHEVs would do a lot more to reduce our emissions than a few BEVs. This article on that topic coincidentally popped up as I was writing this post, so go there for more.

Eventually when batteries aren’t a limited supply, and if battery prices come down, then that intuition about pure BEVs being the better choice will be true… but for most people with typical driving habits, PHEVs are the way to go for now. And as a bonus, you don’t have to install a charging station at home (you can recharge overnight from a regular 110V outlet) or learn about charging networks for trip planning (just switch over to gas-burning hybrid mode and hit a regular gas station).

I barely drive these days, but still came out ahead picking a hybrid, on top of the environmental benefits of burning less oil. PHEVs are nearly no-brainers (in part thanks to government subsidies) in the same way, thanks to the cheaper cost of electricity (in most jurisdictions) and better efficiency of electric motors. Even with just 8000 km per year of driving, and just 75% of that electrified, I’d come out ahead picking the plug-in version of the Escape or Prius over the hybrid version (and way ahead of the gasser version). If you drive like a normal person, the benefits can be huge.

If you’re shopping for a new car and aren’t at least looking at the PHEV options out there, well, go do that!

However, there is a trade-off with many PHEVs: those batteries and powertrain take up space. The Prius is a remarkable car for its efficiency in space and what we’re able to cram in the trunk. The Prius Prime is really cool, incredibly efficient… and unfortunately loses a hefty chunk (~1/4) of that versatile trunk space (plus the spare tire). Fortunately, the newer SUV PHEVs (Ford Escape and Rav4 Prime) have found ways to put those extra batteries under the car and are basically zero-compromise — they even keep the spare tires. But it seems you have to go up to that SUV size class to get that storage space along with everything else.

Calculator

Of course I have a spreadsheet to help do the comparison math. As always, download it or copy to your own Google drive rather than ask for permission to edit the template.

It should be pretty straightforward to use: enter your competing options, how you plan to drive, the consumption figures, and the cost of your fuel sources (electricity or gas) to get a comparison of the 15-year cost to own. Lots of simplifying assumptions: no inflation or other needless complications built in this time. It doesn’t consider resale value after 15 years, so perhaps a 20-year period would better capture full lifetime costs (which should be easy for you to change).

Getting your estimate of vehicle purchase costs should be easy (all[?] manufacturers’ build-and-price tools look to include the federal iZev and provincial [BC & PQ] incentives). Gas price is easy to estimate, though will be the most volatile in the future. Fuel consumption figures are listed, though getting kWh/100km and battery sizes can be a little harder (I added a way to estimate it from the battery size and range if you like, though it’s likely easier to just convert back from the Le/100km figure which should be listed in the specs somewhere). Electricity costs can also be a bit trickier to find as there can be delivery charges and time-of-use issues. Here in Toronto the headline number for off-peak usage is 8.3 cents/kWh, but there’s HST and a delivery charge (1.5 cents/kWh), so I’ve put 11 cents/kWh in. If you want to get fancy, you can add scenarios for off-peak and on-peak charging, but I’m already teetering at the edge of the rabbit hole.

I built in a 7% loss of efficiency for charging. Finding a more precise number will be hard until more people have the cars in their hands and try to measure it, but that should be close enough to capture that factor. (What is that, you ask? Well, it usually takes more than X kWh of electricity to fill a X kWh battery — some will be lost as heat, or used by the control electronics and cooling system during charging. It can vary depending on the model, the weather, etc., and it’s not reported in a standardized NRCan test, so unless you want another dive down the rabbit hole, take a rough estimate in the 5-10% range).

Aside: Not all PHEVs Are Created Equal

The magic of a gas-sipping hybrid car is not in the regenerative braking or cruising on EV mode, though that’s the sizzle that many auto journalists focus on. No, the big fuel savings comes from the Atkinson-cycle engine, which is more efficient at converting energy in liquid hydrocarbons to motion down the road. But you can’t put an Atkinson-cycle engine in a regular car because its acceleration (peak power output) sucks balls — the magic of a hybrid is using the electric motors and battery to cover you for those acceleration bursts, letting you get much better fuel economy from that more thermodynamically efficient engine (plus the extras like regenerative braking, turning the engine off when not needed, etc.).

For some reason, many PHEVs seem to be just a battery and electric motor slapped on to a conventional car that still has an Otto-cycle engine and conventional multi-gear transmission, and as a result get shoddy fuel economy once the battery runs out. So to me that was an important filter: is this a top-to-bottom hybrid that can also plug in (which should solve that worry about added complexity), or is it a conventional car with an electric motor hack? I almost immediately dismissed a number of offerings for that reason.

Though an alternative point of view is that it really doesn’t matter — if you do ~90% of your driving on pure electric, then who cares if it’s a gas guzzler for that occasional trip beyond EV range?

Another issue is that PHEVs have a bad history of being discontinued (perhaps “as the market evolves rapidly”, or perhaps just bad luck). The Volt had many, many issues as it was being birthed into the world (and I was super-critical of its apparent half-hearted development back in the day), but seemed to meet a genuine need once it finally made it to production, and meet it well. But now you can’t buy it any more. The Honda Clarity made it less than four years. The Ford C-Max and Fusion Engeris are both gone, and the Prius has gone through three plug-in iterations in just two overall model generations (but is still on sale and if it had a larger trunk would already be in my driveway).

However, I think that the automakers are starting to figure it out. The Rav4 Prime appears to be a massive hit (helped by the fact that it’s pleasing the moar power crowd and the green crowd at the same time with zero sacrifices). I don’t see quite as much hype for the Ford Escape PHEV, though it was delayed by over a year, and doesn’t have the perk of holding the Autobot Matrix of Leadership (i.e., it may need a cooler name to distinguish itself from a regular Escape. The Escape Lightning?).

I haven’t done a hybrid/primer post in a while, so hopefully that general stuff helps you (and nudges you to choose a hybrid or PHEV for your next car). Tomorrow I’ll get into the personal hand-wringy part of trying to decide what to do.

The Big Picture

And of course, I’d be remiss in not mentioning that as much as choosing your car well can help save money and the environment, it’s even better to not drive at all: taking public transit, walking, becoming a hermit in the woods free of the modern world’s burdens, biking, or carpooling when you do need a car to get somewhere can be good alternatives.